Owner Resource Group is pleased to provide the following wealth management insights from Round Table Wealth Management

First Quarter 2022 Review

Before we dive into our quarterly letter, we would like to express our ongoing concern and hope for a peaceful settlement for the people of Ukraine. May our world leaders find resolutions to fortify a lasting peace.

Capital markets retreated in the first quarter, not at an alarming rate, but certainly a deviation from the pattern of positive quarters investors have grown to appreciate. Of the last 50 quarters since the Great Financial Crisis, only 8 quarters generated a negative return and nearly all these quarterly drawdowns were recouped within the following quarter. The most important factor impacting markets during the first quarter was the prospect of continuing rising inflation and the certainty of rising interest rates. While the equity markets rallied into quarter-end, Federal Reserve Governor Brainard (historically a very dovish member of the FOMC) and subsequently the Fed’s minutes stated that it may “rapidly” reduce its balance sheet starting in May, which fostered a selloff in both equity and bond markets.

Our portfolio positioning during the quarter increased exposure to liquid hedged equity, reduced growth-style investments and further reduced longer-duration fixed income. We maintained exposure to commodities, which have performed admirably this year. Recent inflation figures suggest the increase in consumer prices is not over and the Federal Reserve is nearly certain to continue its rate increase strategy. Chairperson Powell mentioned the Fed’s ability to increase rates by 50 basis points (similar to when he discussed a 25 bps increase prior to the official March announcement), which could be viewed as Powell giving the market “long headlights” to see the rate path ahead. Since the market lows in early-March, growth-style valuations have increased back to significant premium valuation levels. Combined with the path of interest rates, increasing inflation and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, we are maintaining our current allocations with a greater emphasis on hedged equities.

Owner Resource Group is pleased to provide the following wealth management insights from Round Table Wealth Management

Fourth Quarter 2021 Review

Once again, equity markets had a great year with the S&P 500 posting a 29% return and a 3-year annualized return of 26%! The equity market returns are even more impressive in light of inflation concerns throughout the year, labor shortages, supply bottlenecks and the mutating COVID-19 virus. As we look toward 2022, our view is that many of these risks will continue and some specifically will have a more critical influence on market returns. While we would love to see a repeat of 2021 markets, our expectations for the year ahead calls for more moderate equity market returns, as well as investment grade fixed income returns being somewhat muted due to the high probability of rising interest rates. 

Owner Resource Group is pleased to provide the following wealth management insights from Round Table Wealth Management.

Third Quarter 2021 Review

Dear Clients and Friends,

We hope you had a wonderful summer and were able to gather with family and friends once again. As the world emerged for summer vacations, capital markets were relatively calm. However, issues brewing under the surface for much of the year including inflation, a Federal debt limit impasse, supply shortages, shipping logistics and labor shortages all drew increased scrutiny in investors’ minds during September, contributing to heightened volatility within markets. Despite these post-Labor Day headwinds and setbacks, capital markets have performed well year-to-date, generating a return of 15.9% for the S&P 500 through September 30 while the bond market is down approximately 1.6%.

Following the strong trailing returns and with more risks on the horizon, we believe equity and bond market returns will likely be more moderate over the short to intermediate time horizon. Since April 2020, investors have reaped the benefits of equity exposure as earnings and valuations have surged to record levels. The market’s rebound off the bottom and today’s high valuations are consistent with prior recoveries post-recession. Historically, during a recovery, market valuations gradually subside as earnings regain momentum. Today, however, valuations remain high and operating earnings are also at historically high levels. For valuations to revert along historical patterns, earnings growth will necessarily need to continue its current trajectory. We are constantly evaluating new data as it becomes available and considering how it will impact our investment outlook. Consequently, while our portfolio positioning has not materially changed since last quarter, new developments across macro factors may lead us to alter allocations and risks in the near-term. Please reach out directly to your Wealth Advisor to discuss our outlook or any concerns you may have.

Owner Resource Group is pleased to provide the following wealth management insights from Round Table Wealth Management.

Second Quarter 2021 Review

Dear Clients and Friends,

We hope you are enjoying summer! The “dog days of summer” were not discouraging the markets as they continued their upward trajectory with all major equity and fixed income indices generating positive performance for the quarter. As inflation concerns waned, growth equities rebounded and outperformed value-style investments by 6.7% based on Russell 1000 data. The subdued inflation outlook benefited fixed income investors as yields fell and prices increased, allowing the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index to recoup 1.8% of its negative year-to-date return.

We have not made any material changes to our portfolio positioning since our last correspondence. As we discuss in the Big Picture section below, consumer spending and cash levels (purchasing power), employment opportunities, historically low interest rates and massive government spending all support continued overweight allocations to equities. We recognize risks remain such as mounting U.S. debt, a high probability of tax increases and the COVID-19 Delta variant that is causing concerns outside the U.S.

We welcome a conversation with you to discuss our outlook. If you would like to learn more, please contact us for a personal meeting.

Owner Resource Group is pleased to provide the following wealth management insights from Round Table Wealth Management.

First Quarter 2021 Review

Capital markets provided mixed returns during the first quarter as value-style indices advanced, growth-style indices lagged and fixed income markets declined. A confluence of factors is creating both tailwinds and headwinds in the markets: Approved stimulus measures and proposed infrastructure spending combined with expanding COVID-19 vaccine deployments and easing mobility restrictions are expected to drive corporate earnings growth into the double-digits this year. Conversely, the associated risk of higher inflation and interest rates are pressuring growth-style equity valuations and bond prices. For the first time in years, quarterly performance for the Russell 1000 Value Index has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 Growth Index by approximately 5.1% and 10.3%, respectively. Fixed income, which benefited last year from declining interest rates, generated a return of -3.4% as rising inflation and interest rate expectations pressured bond prices.

We have repositioned portfolios towards a more value-centric approach across equity allocations, including adding tactical positions that we believe may perform well as the U.S. initiates massive infrastructure spending. We are modestly underweight fixed income and continue to gravitate towards shorter duration bond strategies that are less impacted by inflation concerns and rising rates, while maintaining the safe-haven characteristics associated with the asset class. While the risks of 2020 are slowly fading, new and different risks (and opportunities) are presenting.

Owner Resource Group is pleased to provide the following wealth management insights from Round Table Wealth Management.

Fourth Quarter 2020 Review

We would like to first acknowledge and offer our heartfelt condolences and thoughts to those that lost loved ones or suffered economic hardship during this ongoing pandemic. It was a year like no other. Winston Churchill once said, “If you are going through hell, keep going.”  We agree: stay safe, stay positive and keep moving forward. We hope you had a reflective New Year’s and join us in looking forward to 2021 and beyond.

Despite the economic lockdowns of 2020 and emotional hardship, the capital markets performed admirably with the S&P 500 increasing approximately 18.4% by year-end and nearly all equity styles generating positive performance. Many of the risks that we highlighted throughout 2020 have dissipated: COVID-19 vaccines are being developed and deployed, stimulus measures are being passed to provide necessary funds for families across the country and the Presidential election has been decided and finalized. We are currently more optimistic than we were at this time last year and will remain constructive on markets near term. We are pleased with the performance that client portfolios generated and the tactical maneuvers we initiated to manage risk at the most concerning of times. Today, portfolios are largely unhedged as we are cautiously optimistic entering 2021.

Owner Resource Group is pleased to provide the following wealth management insights from our partners at Round Table Wealth Management.

Third Quarter 2020 Review

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” 
– Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities.

Owner Resource Group is pleased to provide the following wealth management insights from our partners at Round Table Wealth Management

Second Quarter 2020 Review

First, we hope you and your family are happy, healthy and enjoying some return to normal life.